Suchergebnisse

Rally-round-the-flag events are short-term boosts of government approval during crises, and the COVID-19 pandemic produced such an effect in many countries. But why did some people join the rally while others didn't? Using public opinion data from Costa Rica, this paper tests two hypotheses: first, that threat increases government approval at the outbreak of the pandemic; second, that electoral predispositions shape approval. Results indicate that COVID-19 contagions, as a measure of the threat, are not associated with approval, while past voting patterns are. Positive assessments of the economy and the relief measures also predict higher support for the government. In brief, Costa Rica's rally-round-the-flag event did not overcome the partisan divisions or the ordinary drivers of approval. (JPLA/GIGA)

La ciencia política ha recurrido a datos de panel o longitudinales de forma incremental en las últimas décadas. En comparación con datos transversales, las inferencias que se pueden obtener a través de datos de panel son considerablemente más reveladoras; sin embargo, su análisis no debe limitarse al modelo clásico lineal de regresión de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios. Con datos electorales reales y simulaciones, esta nota de investigación demuestra la mayor robustez de los modelos de efectos fijos y efectos aleatorios, así como los problemas con el estimador Arellano-Bond en el caso de paneles cortos en el tiempo, comunes en estudios electorales. ; Political science has relied upon panel or longitudinal data incrementally in the last decades. In comparison with cross-section data, the inferences attainable through panel data are considerably more enlightening; however, its analysis should not be limited to the classical linear model of ordinary least-squares regression. Based on real electoral data and simulations, this research note demonstrates the greater robustness of the fixed and random effects models and the problems associated to the Arellano-Bond estimator, in the case of short panels, which are common in electoral studies.

[EN] We analyze presidential approval ratings in Costa Rica from 1980 to 2016, seeking to explain typical cycles of "honeymoon", decay, and recovery, and the deviations that emerge from them: the two presidential terms of Oscar Arias. First, we show that party fragmentation has affected electoral support of the winning president and, as a consequence, his or her approval rate at the beginning of the mandate (i.e. the "honeymoon"). Using time series analysis, we then go on to model approval ratings as a function of economic and political variables. We find that social expenditure matters more than the macroeconomic indicators, and that the "Arias exceptionality" could be better understood as a result of higher social expenditure during his government and the coattails of the Nobel Peace Prize that he was awarded. Thus, social policy could be added to the theories of approval as a relevant variable in some contexts.

Investigaciones previas han constatado la importancia de la opinión pública sobre los asuntos de política exterior. Este estudio busca identificar la estructura de la opinión costarricense y estimar el efecto de un evento internacional relevante: un fallo de la Corte Internacional de Justicia en el caso Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua. Para ello, se utiliza una serie de encuestas que han incorporado de forma periódica preguntas sobre asuntos exteriores. Se puede confirmar que la valoración de la política exterior constituye una dimensión relativamente autónoma respecto a la política doméstica. Además, los modelos indican que la percepción sobre la conducción de las relaciones exteriores en el país mejoró significativamente luego de conocerse el fallo. Estos resultados muestran que la opinión pública responde ante lo internacional, aunque esto acontece en condiciones de especial sensibilidad, como las relaciones con Nicaragua. ; Previous research has noted the importance of public opinion on foreign policy issues. This study seeks to identify Costa Ricans' public opinion structure, in order to estimate the effect of a relevant international event: the International Court of Justice's decision on the case Costa Rica vs. Nicaragua. For this purpose, we use a series of surveys, which have periodically incorporated questions related to foreign affairs. It can be confirmed that the approval of foreign policy and domestic policy are relatively autonomous dimensions. In addition, the models indicate that the perception of foreign relations in the country improved significantly after the Court's decision was known. These results show that public opinion in Costa Rica responds to international events, although this happens in conditions of special sensitivity, such as relations with Nicaragua.

The article aims to elaborate an initial exploration on the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy in Costa Rica. Lor this reason, the paper analyzes the main theoretical discussions on this s u b je c t a n d e la b o r a te s a s tu d y b a s e d o n p r i m a r y so u rc e s, c o n s is tin g o f two opinion surveys conducted in Costa Rica, which had questions on foreign policy components. Therefore, it describes variations in Costa Rican citizen interest, knowledge and preferences on foreign policy according to their socio demographic features and stances on domestic politics. We found that sex, age, education and income are significantly associated with interest, knowledge and preferences. The opinion on Laura Chinchilla's foreign policy is better valued than her management of government in general, though both dimension are related. Linally, with these patterns of behavior in Costa Rican public opinion, we establish a roadmap for more ambitions research on the subject. ; El objetivo del presente artículo es realizar una exploración inicial de la relación entre opinión pública y política exterior en Costa Rica. Con este fin se emprende un recorrido por las principales discusión es teóricas sobre la materia y es tu día las fuentes primarias , compuestas por dos encuestas de opinión realizadas en Costa Rica, enfocadas hacia la política exterior. Se ahonda en la descripción de las variaciones en el interés, conocimiento y preferencias ciudadanas en torno a la política exterior, según sus características demográficas y opiniones de la política doméstica. Se encuentra así que el sexo, la edad, la educación y los ingresos, están significativamente asociados con interés, conocimientos y preferencias. La opinión de la política exterior del gobierno de Laura Chinchilla es mejor valorada que su gestión del gobierno en general, sin embargo ambas dimensiones están relacionadas. Linalmente, con estos patrones de comportamiento de la opinión pública costarricense en esta materia, se establece una ruta de trabajo para investigaciones más ambiciosas.

Facing the Bicentennial of Independence, this article examines the development of the political regimes in Central America after the transitions of the eighties. First, we observe that all countries, except for Costa Rica, experience processes of gradual erosion, in various conceptual dimensions of democracy. Second, citizen support for the political system and democracy has decreased in all countries. Finally, we find that political and democratic support are lower among young people. These levels of support are linked to perceptions of insecurity and material privation. The changes occur in a context of party fragmentation, the rise of authoritarian leaders, and the absence of state responses to demands for greater equality and economic well-being. ; Ante el bicentenario de la independencia, este artículo examina cuál ha sido el desarrollo de los regímenes políticos centroamericanos posterior a las transiciones de la década de los ochenta. Primero, se observa que todos los países, menos Costa Rica, atraviesan procesos de erosión gradual en diversas dimensiones conceptuales de democracia. Segundo, el apoyo ciudadano al sistema político y a la democracia ha disminuido en todos los países. Finalmente, se evidencia que los niveles de apoyo político y democrático son menores entre personas jóvenes. Estos niveles están vinculados con percepciones de inseguridad y privación material. Los cambios ocurren en un contexto de fragmentación partidaria, ascenso de líderes autoritarios y ausencia de respuestas estatales ante las demandas de mayor igualdad y bienestar económico.